Top Pick: Hull.
Match analysis are as follows:
1) Hull (+1/2 on AH)
Ratings: 8.5/10
Aston Villa visits Hull in search for another win to get them back into 3rd place in the Premier League. Both teams are attacking-minded, hence goals are abound a win would get either team back on track. Statistics are pointing to a high probability of a draw as Villa have not drawn in their last 13 away matches. Accept the handicap, and a small punt on the draw.
Top Picks: Arsenal, West Ham (Over 2.5g).
Additions: Chelsea.
Match analysis are as follows:
1) Arsenal (-1 1/4 on AH)
Ratings: 8/10
Arsenal will need to start collecting points if they want to maintain the fight for a top 4 finish. Despite their leaky defense, they are still able to score with ease. Portsmouth are poor travellers, and with a good head-to-head record against Pompey, they should notch another 3 points to keep the pressure on the league leaders at the top of the league.
2) West Ham (Over 2.5g)
Ratings: 8.5/10
Stoke are the worst away team in the league, conceding an average of 2.20 goals per match. West Ham will be relishing this fact as they are due to score at home after missing the net in their last 3 home matches. However, there's not much confidence to go with the home team as they concede an average of 1.50 goals at home. In short, going with Over 2.5 goals is definitely the call.
Top Picks: Man City, Blackburn (Over 2.5g), Tottenham.
Additions: Wigan.
Matches are coming in thick and fast, starting with Boxing Day. Match analysis are as follows:
1) Man City (-1/2 on AH)
Ratings: 8.5/10
Man City will be looking to bounce back after their unlucky loss to West Brom. They play host to Hull, who were thumped 1-4 by Sunderland last weekend. Despite their excellent start to the season, Hull are showing signs of slowing down and recent performances suggest that the downtrend will continue. City have not scored at home in their last 3, and Hull is leaky on their travels. Man City should edge this tie to pull themselves out of the bottom 3.
3) Blackburn (Over 2.5g)
Ratings: 8.5/10
Expect a flurry of goals as Sunderland entertains Blackburn. Both teams seems to have found their scoring boots lately, although their defense are prone to concede goals. An interesting stat, however, points to a draw for this game. Sunderland have yet to draw in their last 11 matches, while Blackburn have not drawn in their last 9. Nevertheless, going with Over 2.5 goals should be the call, and perhaps a small punt on a scoring draw (2-2 or 3-3).
3) Tottenham (-3/4 on AH)
Ratings: 8/10
Fulham have not scored and conceded in their last 3 travels, and overall have the meanest defense apart from Chelsea in the league. However, this stats should be broken against an attacking-minded Spurs. Tottenham are still not safe from relegation, and will definitely attack from the 1st minute until they secure the much needed victory. Head-to-head stats also favors the home team.
Top Picks: Newcastle (Over 2.5g), Almeria, Reggina.
Additions: Villareal, Fiorentina.
Match analysis are as follows:
1) Newcastle (Over 2.5g)
Ratings: 8.5/10
Toon Army welcomes Tottenham to St James Park looking to stretch their unbeaten run to 6 matches. At home, Newcastle have scored in every match, with an average of 2 goals a match in their last 5. Tottenham are also pretty impressive on their travels lately, notching an average of 2 goals per match in their last 6 away. Its hard to choose a winner here but over 2.5 goals is definitely the call considering the attacking prowess and form of both teams.
2) Almeria (+1/4 on AH)
Ratings: 8/10
Almeria visits Sporting Gijon, with both teams currently finding themselves struggling to garner points. Sporting are weak at home, as opposed to their travels. Conceding an average of 2.25 goals per match at home, this glaring fact does not augur well for Sporting as visitors Almeria are able to score at least a goal on average away. Sporting have yet to draw in their last 17 matches, and Almeria stands to gain at least a point with their robust and defensive play.
3) Reggina (+3/4 on AH)
Ratings: 7.5/10
Purely statistical pick here as head-to-head record favours Reggina as Cagliari have never beaten them at home in their last 5 (lost 3, drew 2). Despite Cagliari's overall home strength with only 2 losses out of 7, there is an element of surprise in store as Reggina is due for at least a draw away. In addition to this, stats reveal only a 33.33% chance for Cagliari to win this after achieving 5 consecutive wins on asian handicap.
HOT PICK: AUXERRE, WEST HAM
Top Picks: Espanyol, Nice (Under 2.5).
Additions: Le Havre.
Match analysis are as follows:
1) Auxerre (+1/2 on AH)
Ratings: 9.5/10
Auxerre travels to St Etienne knowing that a win will propel them to mid-table safety. St Etienne comes into this match with minimum rest between matches after their mid-week UEFA Cup exploit. At home, St Etienne have been blowing hot and cold with mixed results as they struggle to maintain above the relegation zone (currently 17th). Stats reveal that Auxerre is due to score an away goal (not scored in last 4 away), chances are slim for St Etienne to squeeze out a win if they concede. High stakes on Auxerre to notch a possible win here.
2) West Ham (+1/4 on AH)
Ratings: 9/10
Upton Park welcomes Aston Villa as West Ham seeks to continue their revival after positive results against Chelsea and Liverpool in the past weeks. Despite's Aston Villa's good run of form, it must be noted that in their last 5 matches they have conceded an average of 1.80 goals. In addition to this, Villa have yet to draw away in their last 12 matches, BUT have drawn in 5 of last 6 matches against West Ham at Upton Park! High stakes on the Hammers to end this game with 1-1 or 2-2 draw as they hold a 100% head-to-head record against Villa.
3) Toulouse vs Nice (Under 2.5g)
Ratings: 8/10
Battle of the 'misers' as 2 defensive-minded teams squares off where goals will be a premium. Toulouse are having a great run, losing only once on handicap in their last 6 matches. They don't concede much either, averaging a meagre 0.44 goals at home. Visitors Nice are no slouch either, with a positive average on away matches (1.20 scored vs 1 concede). Nice have not scored in their last 2, and stats are giving them 53.85% chance to to do here. I'd go with Under 2.5 goals instead.
4) Espanyol (+1/4 on AH)
Ratings: 7.5/10
Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in their last 7 away matches, and 14 in total. Despite this, they only average 1.58 goals scored against 1.50 goals conceded. With head-to-head stats favouring the home team (only 1 defeat in past 5 encounters), Espanyol has every chance to surprise the visitors as they seek to wriggle out of the relegation zone.
Top Picks: NEC Nijmegen, Spartak Moscow.
Additions: Sevilla.
Yesterday and today (17-18 Dec 2008) represents the final group matches for UEFA Cup to decide the qualifiers for the subsequent round. There are a couple of matches of value. Match analysis are as follows:
1) NEC Nijmegen (-1/2 on AH)
Ratings: 8.5/10
Group D leaders Udinese have slumped to a free-fall in form in the last 10 matches, losing 9 on handicap in the process. Nijmegen will be looking to take full advantage by gunning for the 3pts for a chance to progress from the Group. The Dutch side will be expected to launch wave of attacks as goal difference will be an important factor in determining their fate. Udinese are already assured to qualify and with a daunting trip to AC Milan looming in the horizon this weekend, they will not lose any sleep with a loss to the Dutch. Full stakes on home team.
2) Spartak Moscow (+1 on AH)
Ratings: 8/10
Interesting times for Tottenham as they play host to Spartak Moscow. Spurs have turned around the corner since the beginning of season by registering a whopping 11 wins on AH in their last 13 matches! With 3 teams slugging it out in Group D to accompany Udinese to the next round, Spartak will go all out to ensure that they have a mathematical chance to do so. Although Tottenham have not conceded in their last 2, stats point to a meagre 13.33% chance for them to win on AH. A draw will not harm their chances if other results go their way.
Top Picks: Fiorentina, St Etienne.
Additions: Nancy, Aston Villa, Club Brugge.
Today and tomorrow (17-18 Dec 2008) represents the final group matches for UEFA Cup to decide the qualifiers for the subsequent round. There are a couple of matches of value. Match analysis are as follows:
1) Fiorentina (-1 on AH)
Ratings: 8.5/10
Mid-week Italian Cup match sees Fiorentina welcoming Torino to Stadio Artemio Franchi. The Violas are brimming with confidence after last weekend's 2-0 win over Catania - moving them into 5th spot in the Serie A standings. Torino, however, are going through a bad patch with 3 losses in their last 3 matches and dropping into the relegation zone in the league. Fiorentina will be looking to take full advantage of this, and stats are backing them with a 78.57% chance to do so.
2) St Etienne (+1/4 on AH)
Ratings: 8/10
Valencia visits St Etienne needing at least a draw to ensure their ticket to the next round. Surprise Group G leaders St Etienne can afford the luxury of a loss as they are already assured of qualification. Valencia, however, cannot expect any favours from the group leaders as a point would ensure that the French outfit remains as the group winner. Interestingly, St Etienne have not drawn in any home matches to date (11 in total) and stats are backing the draw to happen as Valencia will also have an eye for this weekend's trip to Real Madrid. Take the home team and a small punt on outright draw.Publish Post
HOT PICK: SPORTING GIJON
Top Picks: Lorient, Fiorentina (Over 2.5).
Additions: Lazio, Roma, Deportivo La Coruna, Newcastle.
Match analysis are as follows:
1) Sporting Gijon (+1/2 on AH, and outright DRAW)
Ratings: 9/10
Athletic Bilbao hosts newly-promoted Sporting Gijon in a match that promises goals. Sitting precariously on the lower rungs of La Liga, Bilbao will need to muster a win to avoid being sucked into the relegation battle. Gijon, meanwhile, will be eyeing the 3pts themselves as their away form have shown that they are not to be taken lightly when travelling. Despite this, there is a glaring fact that points to a scoring draw for this match. Bilbao have yet to draw at home in last 8 while Gijon have not had a single draw since beginning of season in all competitions (16 matches to date)! Accept the handicap given and go for the outright draw as well.
2) Lorient (+1/4 on AH)
Ratings: 8/10
Struggling Le Havre are finding it hard to score lately, with the last 3 matches yielding no goals. Losing 3 of their last 4, they have since plummeted to 19th in the French league standings. Hosting Lorient this weekend, the visitors come into the match brimming with confidence after remaining undefeated in 7 of their last 8 matches. Lorient has a 100% head-to-head record against the home side, and stats point to a 33.3% chance of draw or away win.
3) Fiorentina (over 2.5g)
Ratings: 7.5/10
This match has goals written all over it. Fiorentina have been average almost 2 goals a game in their last 4 home matches, but their leaky defense are also guilty of conceding an average of a goal every match. Visitors Catania have yet to win away, not scoring in their last 3 away matches. Over 2.5 goals should be the call here.
Top Picks: Hertha Berlin, Liverpool.
Additions: Stuttgart, Nantes, Lecce.
Match analysis are as follows:
1) Hertha Berlin (-1 on AH)
Ratings: 8/10
Interesting times for Hertha. Despite the blip at Schalke in previous week, they remain within reach of surprise Bundesliga leaders Hoffenheim - who are 4pts ahead. At home to struggling Karlsruher, Hertha should be able to capitalize on the visitor's pathetic away form. Stats are backing them with a 75% chance to win convincingly to sustain the challenge for the summit.
2) Liverpool (-1 1/4 on AH)
Ratings: 8/10
An important test awaits Hull as they visit league leaders Liverpool. With only 1 loss in 9 away matches, Hull will be brimming with confidence when they take on the Reds at Anfield. Nevertheless, its never easy to score against Liverpool, and with Hull's leaky defence, they will succumb into Liverpool's quick-fire counter attacks. Stats show that Hull is overdue for a loss on handicap - and with Chelsea playing the day after, Liverpool will not rest on their laurels until victory is assured to maintain the lead on top. Expect Liverpool to win 2-0 or 3-0.
HOT PICK: GRENOBLE
Top Picks: Fiorentina (DRAW), Celtic.
Additions: AaB Aalborg, Zenit St Petersburg.
Match analysis are as follows:
1) Grenoble (+3/4 on AH)
Ratings: 9/10
Originally slated for 29th Nov, this postponed match provides Grenoble with a chance to get back on track after some disappointing results (4 draws out of last 6). Nice have one of the best home records, being 1 of 4 remaining unbeaten teams at home. A closer look, however, will reveal that they tend to draw almost as much as win - and mostly by 1 goal difference. Stats also suggest that Grenoble has a 72.73% to grab at least a draw here, especially when their away stats read an average of 1.17 goals scored as well as concede in all competitions. A small punt on outright win for the away team is worth trying too.
2) Fiorentina (outright DRAW)
Ratings: 8/10
Bottom two of Group F square up for the opportunity to participate in the UEFA Cup as the top 2 teams of the group are already assured of qualifications. With Steaua expected to attack for the win to overtake their opponent, Fiorentina will soak up the pressure and defend for a draw. The Italians are tough to break down, and considering that they have yet to draw in their last 8 away matches, the odds look tasty for an outright DRAW as a point is enough for Fiorentina to sneak into the UEFA Cup knockout round.
3) Celtic (-1/4 on AH)
Ratings: 8/10
Most might dismiss this match as irrelevant but a closer look at Group E's table will reveal some interesting points. Villareal, together with Man Utd, have already qualified BUT Celtic still has an UEFA Cup spot to play for. Trailing AaB Aalborg by 3pts, Celtic can sneak through the back door with a win should Man Utd defeat AaB at home. Traditionally strong at home, Celtic has the advantage to make this tie count as Villareal will be distracted by their upcoming league fixtures against the top 5 teams consecutively - namely Sevilla, Barcelona, Real Madrid and Valencia - in the following weeks!
Top Pick: AS Roma.
Additions: CFR Cluj, Bremen (Over 2.5).
Match analysis are as follows:
1) AS Roma (-3/4 on AH)
Ratings: 8/10
Ticket to the next round beckons for both teams who, together with Chelsea, are fighting for the top 2 spots in Group A. Resurgent Roma have notched their 5th consecutive win in all competitions as they turned their fortunes around after a disastrous start to the season. Conceding only 1 goal in last 5, stats reveal a 76.92% for them to brush aside Bordeaux to qualify for the knockout round.
HOT PICK: SOCHAUX
Top Picks: Juventus, Le Mans, Malaga.
Additions: AC Milan, Espanyol, Grenoble (Over 2.5).
Match analysis are as follows:
1) Sochaux (+1/2 on AH)
Ratings: 9/10
Monaco have been blowing hot and cold with series of losses and wins that come in sequence. No one is able to figure out which team would appear whenver they take on the field. Despite not conceding in the last 2, Monaco still averages 1 goal a piece on scoring and conceding - which means this match has a high possibility of a draw. Sochaux is not an easy opponent to beat, despite their current position. They have lost by more than 1 goal difference only ONCE in all 18 competitive matches, and this speaks volume on their defensive play. With Monaco rarely finding the back of the net on most occasions, Sochaux is definitely worth a shot.
2) Juventus (-3/4 on AH)
Ratings: 8.5/10
Old Lady of Turin is enjoying their recent run of form (1 defeat the only blemish in last 10 matches) that has seen them catapult back to 2nd position. Bookmakers are taking them seriously as championship contenders, and a win at Lecce today will see them edging closer to rivals Inter Milan in the race to top the league. Stats calculated a 75% chance for Juve to hand Lecce their 2nd defeat at home.
3) Le Mans (+3/4 on AH)
Ratings: 8/10
Le Mans travels to PSG for a chance to leap-frog to the top 5 position should they win there. Despite just drawing away to Man City on Thursday's UEFA Cup match, PSG have not won in their last 3. Stats have also revealed that for home teams not scoring in last 2 stands only a meagre 25% chance of winning when giving handicap. A tight encounter is in store here but Le Mans has every chance to snatch at least a draw against a tired team to move up the table.
4) Malaga (+1/2 on AH)
Ratings: 7.5/10
3 matches without defeat in last 3 has allowed Malaga to steadily climb into the top 10 bracket of La Liga. A tough match awaits them as they visit in-form Deportivo - who has won 7 of their last 8 matches! Nevertheless, Deportivo will have tired legs running for this match as they have just played away in Poland for the UEFA Cup match. Malaga should be able to take advantage of this factor and snatch a point or 3 here.
HOT PICK: TOULOUSE
Top Picks: Stoke, Leverkusen.
Additions: Arsenal, Sporting Gijon (DRAW), Bochum, Valencia.
Match analysis are as follows:
1) Toulouse (+3/4 on AH)
Ratings: 9/10
7th meets 8th as Toulouse pays visit to Lille for a chance to break into the top 3 if they win. Toulouse has had a good run of results, and are a hard team to break down - only twice conceding more than 1 goal in 17 matches! Lille themselves are strong at home - unbeaten in last 7 since their only defeat to Le Mans on 16th Aug. Nevertheless, caution will be the call for both teams here and a draw seems highly likely to happen.
2) Stoke (+3/4 on AH)
Ratings: 8.5/10
Having just lost 0-1 to Derby in the Carling Cup, Stoke will look to redeem some pride in the Premiership. Their recent upturn in the league (losing only once in last 6 matches) will provide extra motivation at St James' Park. Interestingly, Newcastle have not scored nor concede in their last 2 - and stats are showing only a 19.65% chance for Newcastle to win this match.
3) Leverkusen (-3/4 on AH)
Ratings: 7.5/10
Two losses in the last 2 matches have put the brakes on Leverkusen as they slipped to 4th position in the Bundesliga. Despite this, they will be focusing for a win to remain within reach to become this season's league champions. Their opponents, Monchengladbach, are far worse off and remains rooted at the bottom 2 spot. Scoring an average of 2 goals per away game, Leverkusen should be too potent for the struggling home side.
Top Pick: Bayern Munich.
Match analysis are as follows:
1) Bayern Munich (-1 on AH)
Ratings: 8.5/10
A mouth-watering clash awaits us at the Allianz Arena as Bayern Munich entertains surprise Bundesliga leaders Hoffenheim. Defying all odds and statistics, newly-promoted Hoffenheim have strung together an unbelievable run of 8 wins from last 9 matches to top the table! Despite this fact, they prove to be more vulnerable away. Bayern are a tough nut to crack at home, and they are on a run of their own too - undefeated in last 13 with 9 wins in between with an average of 2.82 goals scored. Hoffenheim's fairy-tale run will have to end sooner or later, and Bayern is the perfect candidate for the task as a win will put the champions level on points.
Top Picks: Deportivo La Coruna, Valencia (OVER 2.5).
Additions: MSK Zilina, Hamburg.
Match analysis are as follows:
1) Deportivo La Coruna (-1/4 on AH)
Ratings: 7.5/10
With an impressive 7 wins out of last 8, Deportivo will be looking to notch another victory in their pursuit to qualify from Group H. Trailing Nancy by a point in the group, nothing short of a win will do for the Spaniards as both teams are locked in the battle to accompany CSKA Moscow into the next round. Deportivo has 6 clean sheets out of last 8, including last 2 matches - and statistics do favour them with a 62% chance of winning for the away team. Deportivo to win-to-nil is the call.
2) Over 2.5 for Valencia
Ratings: 8/10
This game has goals written all over it. Valencia hosts Club Brugge with both needing a win to keep up with surprise group leaders St Etienne who leads Group G by 7pts. At home, Valencia have scored an average of 2.55 goals while conceding 1.36 on average. 9 out of 11 matches have ended in Over 2.5 goals for Valencia at home. With qualifications at stake, both teams will definitely go for goals here. Go for a high scoring win for Valencia.
Top Picks: Schalke, Paris St Germain.
Additions: Partizan Belgrade, Dinamo Zagreb, Manchester United.
Match analysis are as follows:
1) Schalke (-1/4 on AH)
Ratings: 8/10
Schalke faces a test of character as they travel to Belgium to face FC Twente. Having played 3 out of 4 matches in the group to date with 4pts on 2nd spot, they will go all out for a win here in order to ensure qualifications to the next stage. Schalke have not scored in the last 2 but statistics do favour them for a win (3 out of 3 for a 100% chance on teams who have not scored in last 2). The Germans should be able to edge the Belgians here.
2) Paris St Germain (+1/2 on AH)
Ratings: 8/10
Man City hosts French outfit PSG, needing only a point at least to qualify for the knockout stages. They currently sit atop Group A with a maximum of 6 pts, allowing them to rest some players for their important league match against Fulham as they seek to stop the slide down the Premier League. PSG are desperate for points as a win will catapult them to 2nd should other results fall in their favour. Expect a tight encounter with few opportunities between for a low-scoring draw (Man City have yet to draw in their last 11 home matches).
Top Pick: Arsenal.
Match analysis are as follows:
1. Arsenal (-1/2 on AH)
Ratings: 8/10
Wenger is set to unleash his trusted young guns as the Gunners travel to Turf Moor against giant-killers Burnley. Buoyed by their 2-1 defeat of Chelsea last weekend, Arsenal will look to build on that momentum to ensure that they remain relevant on all fronts. Statistics will back Arsenal as they have averaged 2 goals a game on away matches. Burnley will try to frustrate but they will find it hard to match the guile and fluent passing of Arsenal.
