Picks for 30 Nov, 2008

Top Picks: Sporting Gijon, Torino, Paris St Germain.
Additions: Wolfsburg, Blackburn, Mallorca.

Match analysis are as follows:

1. Sporting Gijon (+1/2 on AH)
Ratings: 8/10
Struggling Espanyol hosts Sporting, who holds the record as the only team in La Liga yet to attain a draw. Despite losing their first 5 matches, Gijon have proceeded to win 5 of their 7 last matches, leap-frogging them into 13th spot. The free-scoring team will be looking to notch another victory at Espanyol, but statistics point to a high-scoring draw. Buy the outright DRAW, and Gijon with the half ball handicap start.

2. Torino (+1/2 on AH)
Ratings: 7/10
Siena are misers at home, letting in a meagre 2 goals to date. Despite this, they have only managed 3 victories, mostly by the 1-0 scoreline. Visitors Torino meanwhile are beginning to find their foot, showing decent form in their last 5 matches. With 4pts separating these 2 teams, Torino would be extra motivated to gun for a win to shorten the gap.

3. Paris St Germain (+1/4 on AH)
Ratings: 8.5/10
Two form teams meet in this intriguing match as the winning team will have a chance to move into the top 3 in the French Ligue 1 table. Since their 0-1 loss to Grenoble in Aug 2008, Rennes have remained unbeaten in their steady climb to the current 4th position - remaining unbeaten at home in the league. Their opposition are also on form, raking in 4 wins out of their last 4 matches. PSG will be looking to spoil Rennes march, but will most likely settle for a draw.

Picks for 29 Nov, 2008

Top Picks: Aston Villa, Lecce, Nantes.
Additions: Newcastle, Le Mans, Grenoble (Over 2.5), Sevilla.

Match analysis are as follows:

1. Aston Villa (-3/4 on AH)
Ratings: 8/10
Fulham visits Villa Park buoyed by their recent run of form, where are unbeaten in last 3. Stats show that Fulham have yet to lose by more than 1 goal away to date. Despite having to play midweek in the UEFA Cup, Villa will be extra motivated to build on the positive results attained against Arsenal and Man Utd recently. Expect Villa to win comfortably here, and OVER 2.5 goals a high possibility.

2. Lecce (+1/2 on AH)
Ratings: 7.5/10
Out-of-sorts Catania welcomes Lecce as they seek to slam the brakes on their recent poor run. Despite having one of the best home records, Catania have been sliding down the table after their excellent start (including the record 9 consecutive wins on asian handicap). Lecce will look to capitalize on this opportunity to notch their first away win.

3. Nantes (+3/4 on AH)
Ratings: 8/10
17th placed Nantes visits fellow strugglers Le Havre who currently sits just 1 position above them. Both teams will be looking for a win as they're hovering just 2pts above the bottom 3 teams. An interesting statistics to point though is that Le Havre have yet to draw at home (last 5), while Nantes have not drawn in any away matches to date! Go for the draw outright to maximise the returns.

Pick for 28 Nov, 2008

Top Pick: Koln FC.

Match analysis are as follows:

1. Koln FC (+3/4 on AH)
Ratings: 8/10
Koln have yet to draw in the last 13 matches, and this sequence is bound to be broken sooner than later. A visit to in-form Hertha, who has won the last 3 consecutive matches, will provide the opportunity. Head-to-head statistics show both teams sharing the honours equally. A punt on Koln as well as the a medium wager on the draw outright is worth a try here.

Picks for 27 Nov, 2008

Top Picks: Deportivo (Over 2.5g), Tottenham, Hamburg.
Additions: St Etienne (DRAW), Racing Santander.

Match analysis are as follows:

1. Deportivo La Coruna (Over 2.5g)
Ratings: 8.5/10
Deportivo hosts Feyenoord in a game where neither team could afford to lose. With the top two teams in Group H scheduled to play each other the following week, Deportivo has a chance to take full advantage of their home ground and recent good form (winning 5 of last 6 matches) to gain ground with the leaders. Both teams are free-scoring in their last few matches, hence the probability of a high-scoring match is on the cards. Go with Over 2.5 goals, and perhaps a small wager on the home team.

2. Tottenham (-1/4 on AH)
Ratings: 8/10
Resurgent Spurs will look to add another 3pts as they chase Group D leaders Udinese. Unbeaten in their last 7 of 8 matches, they have recovered from the slump of form to climb out of the EPL's relegation zone. With 2 more matches to play, Tottenham will be gunning for victory at NEC Nijmegen to ensure that qualifications to the next round remains within reach.

3. Hamburg (-1/2 on AH)
Ratings: 7.5/10
An interesting encounter is on hand as the German 'machine' meets the Dutch flair. Hamburg lock horns with Ajax where both teams are currently tied on 3pts in Group F. Hamburg has an awesome record at home, unbeaten this season winning 7 out of 9 matches at home. Ajax will have a tough time breaking down the disciplined defense of the home team in this tight encounter. Hamburg to win 1-0.

Picks for 26 Nov, 2008

Top Picks: Sporting Lisbon, Roma.
Additions: Marseille.

Match analysis are as follows:

1. Sporting Lisbon (+1/4 on AH)
Ratings: 8/10
Unbeaten in last 17 for all competitions, Barcelona are proving worthy as a contender to lift cups domestically as well as in the Champions League. This match, however, might prove to be a distraction for the Nou Camp team as they have 3 massive league games starting from this Saturday's trip to Sevilla coming up. Thereafter they will host Valencia, then Real Madrid - all 3 teams who are in contention for the La Liga crown. Sporting Lisbon has a chance to snatch a draw at home here.

2. AS Roma (-1/2 on AH)
Ratings: 8/10
Having endured a disastrous start to their Serie A campaign, the Totti-led Roma has finally shown signs of recovery as they remain unbeaten in their last 4 matches. They have also not conceded the last 2, which statistically has proven to give a 73% chance of winning the this match. Roma is the form team, and will be extra motivated to show what they're capable of doing.

Pick for 25 Nov, 2008

Top Picks: Dynamo Kiev, Real Madrid.
Additions: Lyon.

Match analysis are as follows:

1. Dynamo Kiev (+1 1/4 on AH)
Ratings: 7.5/10
Kiev travels to Emirates Stadium buoyed by news of Arsenal's recent crisis and slump of form. Arsenal will also be distracted by the big game against Chelsea this Sunday. With only 3pts separating them and Arsenal in Group G, Kiev will need no motivation to go all out to get a result here. Expect goals as Arsenal usually scores at home. Go for Kiev and a small punt on Over 2.5 goals.

2. Real Madrid (-1 on AH)
Ratings: 8/10
Having lost both home and away to Juventus previously, Real Madrid will be gunning for a win here to ensure that they remain relevant to qualify for the next round. Despite sitting 2nd on La Liga, they have actually lost the last 9 on asian handicap. With Zenit breathing on their backs in Group H, this is a must-win game. Expect Real to prevail with class. 2-0 or 3-0 is the call here.

Picks for 23 Nov, 2008

Top Picks: Tottenham, Betis, Roma.
Additions: Catania, Espanyol.

Match analysis are as follows:

1. Tottenham (-1/2 on AH)
Ratings: 8/10
Despite losing only once in the last 7, Spurs still remain at 19th position and this does not augur well as they seek to climb out of the relegation zone. Hosting Blackburn at home, they will be extra motivated with their recent home form where they have plundered an average of 3 goals per game in their last 4 at home! Head-to-head results will also favour them as they have won 71% of the matches when hosting Blackburn.

2. Real Betis (+1/2 on AH)
Ratings: 8/10
Two of the most in-form teams (apart from Barca) meet in this explosive encounter. Sporting Gijon have won 7 out of the last 8 matches, a mean feat considering that they were rooted in relegation zone in the beginning of the season. Betis themselves are no mugs either, winning 6 of the last 7 matches - scoring an average of 2.3 goals per match! With so much at stake, a draw would be the logical call here. Take Betis, and possibly a small punt on Over 2.5

3. Roma (-1/4 on AH)
Ratings: 7/10
Unbeaten in last 3, Roma has finally found its feet again as they seek to accelerate their climb up the table. Totti and company will look to gather the momentum as they seek their 1st away win at Lecce, who themselves are still unbeaten at home. Go for the away win as the price looks tasty for grabs.

Picks for 22 Nov, 2008

Top Picks: Grenoble (Over 2.5), FC Koln, Valencia.
Additions: Portsmouth, Fiorentina, Bochum.

Match analysis are as follows:

1. Over 2.5 (Grenoble vs Le Havre)
Ratings: 7.5/10
This match has Over 2.5 goals written all over it. Both teams can score, but has the tendency to concede as well. After a good start, Grenoble seems to have dwindled down the table. Le Havre will look to take advantage of this as they have Grenoble have not scored in the last 2 but shipping in 5 goals while Le Havre have scored 6 in last 4 while conceding 7 in the process!

2. FC Koln (+1/4 on AH)
Ratings: 8/10
Opposing Hoffenheim seems to be suicide for most but if you look carefully at their stats, they are not strong on travels. Koln have been able to hold their own as they grind out results to maintain their current position. An interesting fact is that Koln have yet to draw in last 12 while the visitors have yet to draw in the last 10! Definitely worth a punt of DRAW outright here.

3. Valencia (+1/4 on AH)
Ratings: 8/10
3rd plays 5th as Valencia lock horns with Sevilla, both level on points expect for goal difference. Sevilla's unpreditable form is giving them a topsy-turvy run in their last 7 matches - winning last 3 without conceding but losing the earlier 4. Valencia, meanwhile, are tough to beat on the road, and with David Villa on their side the chance to score makes them an interesting proposition to take for this match. Minimum a draw for Valencia.

Picks for 16 Nov, 2008.

Top Picks: Manchester City, Torino, Racing Santander.
Additions: Atalanta, Nantes, Sevilla (DRAW), FC Koln (DRAW).

Match analysis are as follows:

1. Manchester City (level on AH)
Ratings: 7.5/10
The Citizens are on a bad run, winning only once in their last 10 on Asian handicap. Drastic measures need to be taken as Mark Hughes look to steer the team clear of the relegation zone. Hull have recently suffered 3 losses in succession after their terrific start to the season. Stats show that Man City have not won in their last 5 away. Expect Robinho and co to prove to Hull that form is only temporary but class is permanent.

2. Torino (+1/2 on AH)
Ratings: 7.5/10
Torino visits Catania, who have 5 out of 6 wins at home in their belt. Catania had previously set the record of winning 9 consecutive games on asian handicap, propelling them to the top five at one stage. However, Torino are no mugs either as they have faced strong oppositions in their travels recently. Head-to-head history favours the away team.

3. Racing Santander (+1/4 on AH)
Ratings: 6.5/10
Racing will look to extend their unbeaten run in last 4 matches (not conceding in last 2) as they visit Real Betis. Both teams are currently on a good run, winning their midweek cup matches to progress to the next round. A tough midfield battle is on the cards here but Racing tough-tackling approach should get them minimum a draw.

Picks for 15 Nov, 2008

HOT PICK: WOLFSBURG
Top Picks: Nancy, Bolton.
Additions: Arsenal / Dortmund / Sporting Gijon (DRAW) / St Etienne (DRAW).

Match analysis are as follows:

1) Wolfsburg
Ratings: 9.5/10
Two teams who love to attack and score lots of goals clash at Carl-Benz-Stadion. Hoffenheim are flying high in their fairy tale start, currently occupying 2nd place in the Bundesliga. Wolfsburg are 7th, but are within a shout of the leaders as they seek their 1st away win to close the gap. There's not much to separate both teams but Wolfsburg's quality and potential will prevail. This is the bet of the day, high stakes on Wolfsburg!

2) Bolton
Ratings: 7/10
Liverpool visits the Reebok stadium looking to maintain their share in the lead of the Premiership as they seek 3 more points here. Bolton, meanwhile, will hope to build on the positive results in the last 2 matches, having not conceded in the last 2. Liverpool just lost 2-4 to Spurs in the Carling Cup, and this could be a distrating result as they face their bogey team in the early afternoon match. Bolton to hold the Reds for a draw.

3) Nancy
Ratings: 7/10
Nancy plays host to Caen, who have yet to lose any games away on handicap. This match could prove to be the one that breaks that record as Nancy have proven to be a tough nut to crack at home. They have yet to lose or concede by more than 1 goal to date at home - a mean feat in the French Ligue 1. 1-0 or 2-0 win to the home team is my call.

Making sense of crunched numbers.

Do you get dizzy with combination after combination of computations permuted on Excel spreadsheets to yield something that makes sense to you? Well, so do i!

Over-analysis is a common syndrome that besiege most punters when it comes to picking a winning team. On the opposite extreme, some would also tend to subscribe to lady luck with the flip of a coin! Regardless of which method one chooses to use, the main objective remains the same - everyone loves picking winners, especially if consistently over time. In my opinion, there is no right or wrong method but more of which one works for you. As they always say, to each his own - as long as it yields the desired positive result!

I have developed my own statistical analysis for football picks based on years of exposure to this subject. Refining it over time is something that is necessary as the trend changes every season. As such, i hope that i'm able to show you an 'alternative view' with my statistics and permutations to pick likely winners from the major football leagues in Europe. Good luck!